Assessing Drought Conditions in Southern Baghdad (1988-2023) Using NDVI Anomaly and Its Impact on Soil and Vegetation
Assessing Drought Conditions in Southern Baghdad (1988-2023) Using NDVI Anomaly and Its Impact on Soil and Vegetation
Auras Muhi Taha*, Ibrahim Ahmed Ibrahim, Hassanein Abduladeem, Mohammed Qais Yassen, Omaima Khalid Ahmed and Tabark Najim Abdul-Allah
ABSTRACT
This study was conducted in southern Baghdad, the capital of Iraq, and the geographical coordinates of the study area consist of the circle of latitude 32°55’15.6989”N to 33°13’40.7824”N and longitude 44°14’26.9843”E to 44°34’02.4323”E. This study aims to evaluate drought levels for the period from 1988 to 2023 and their impact on soil uses and plant densities based on Landsat sensor data. The results showed that the very severe drought type dominated throughout the study period, followed by the severe drought type, while the moderate drought type was constantly decreasing with alternating drought periods, and he significant differences between drought level rates over 35 years. This study indicated a decrease in SAVI values over thirty-five years, i.e., the absence of a large portion of vegetation cover in favor of fallow soils. The regression coefficient also showed a substantial negative relationship between drought conditions and SAVI, where R2 = 0.855. The drought led to the transformation of 64.88% of the study area into urban areas, in addition to 24.28% of Barelands. Therefore, only 10.84% of the study area is still subject to continuous agricultural use. This study found that EVI values decreased, especially in recent years due to the effect of drought, as the regression coefficient reached R2. = 0.8534, with significant differences between EVI rates over thirty-five years confirming the deterioration of vegetation cover in the study area. It can be said that this region is moving towards accepting urban sprawl, whether planned or random. The results also showed the dominance of the low-density variety, as it reached approximately 53.46% of the area of the study area in the last decade, while the good-density and very good varieties were identified in agricultural areas where agricultural activity continues. However, it did not increase. Their percentages ranged between 12.15% and 11.34% over the past decade, and we believe that drought has a clear impact on this deterioration due to decreased rainfall and the use of poor-quality water for irrigation, in addition to increased concentrations of salts that continuously accumulate in the soil without leaching it.
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