Climate Variability and Yam Production: Nexus and Projections
Climate Variability and Yam Production: Nexus and Projections
Grace Okongor, Chukwudi Njoku*, Pauline Essoka and Joel Efiong
ABSTRACT
This study aimed to improve understanding of the nexus between climate variability and yam (Dioscorea spp.) production in Ikom Local Government Area of Cross River State, Nigeria. Rainfall, temperature, sunshine and relative humidity (1976-2016), as well as yam yield data (1990-2016) were considered. Results revealed that climate elements fluctuated steadily during the period with a marginal increase in yam yield. The projections from the Time Series Modeler showed that relative humidity will decrease slightly while yam yield will increase by an additional 265 metric tons in 2026. Although minimal, and not significant to the declining food production trend in Nigeria, the projected increase in yam production in the area would support the deficit in food availability. The nexus between both variables was hypothesized using the multiple linear regression analysis. The result revealed that only sunshine intensity was a significant predictor of yam yield (p =0.011), whereas rain days (p = 0.332), rainfall volume (p = 0.393), temperature (p = 0.235) and relative humidity (p = 0.963) were not. This suggests that key climate variables do not significantly influence yam yield in the area, implying that non-climatic factors likely have more impact. This provides better opportunities to upscale yam production in the area and gives room for better planning by farmers and policy makers.
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