Identification of Response Cost Analysis of Alternative Early Responses to Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Dairy Cattle in Malang District, Indonesia
Identification of Response Cost Analysis of Alternative Early Responses to Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Dairy Cattle in Malang District, Indonesia
Atsmarina Widyadhari1, Chaerul Basri2*, Etih Sudarnika2
ABSTRACT
Delays in disease reporting by farmers and delayed response by officials cause Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) to spread rapidly in the population. This impacts the amount of economic losses in the form of control costs that the government must bear. This study evaluates the control costs incurred with various alternative responses at the beginning of the FMD outbreak. The location of the research model is Malang District, with three simulation areas with low, medium, and high levels of dairy cattle population density. Disease transmission was simulated using the mathematical model susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered or dead-vaccinated-culled (SEIRVC) through three HRPs of 7, 14, and 21 days. Each scenario was then paired with five alternative control programs, namely (1) cull of infected and exposed animals (CIE); (2) cull of infected animals and pre-emptive culling of susceptible animals within 1 km of the outbreak site (CIE 1 km); (3) cull of infected animals and pre-emptive culling of susceptible animals within 3 km of the outbreak site (CIE 3 km); (4) cull of infected animals and vaccination of susceptible animals within 3 km of the outbreak site (CIV 3 km); and (5) cull of infected animals and vaccination of susceptible animals within 10 km of the outbreak site (CIV 10 km). The cost of control was then calculated for all scenarios. The lowest total cost of control was then considered the optimal control strategy. Surveys were also conducted to determine the probability of HRP days and farmer acceptability of each region’s culling program. The expected monetary value (EMV) was calculated by multiplying the probability of HRP and the probability of culling acceptability by the optimal control cost. Simulation results show that the most optimal initial response to FMD outbreaks in low-density areas is the CIE program with an EMV of eradication costs of 67 (65-113) thousand USD; medium-density areas is the CIV 3 km program with an EMV of eradication costs of 194 (188-200) thousand USD; and high-density areas is the CIE program with an EMV of eradication costs of 89 (85-92) thousand USD. The extension of the HRP, the postponement of control measures, and the lack of farmer acceptance of the culling program will increase the number of infected animals, the duration of the outbreak, the number of animals affected by control, and an increase in control costs.
Keywords | SEIRVC model, Economics evaluation, FMD control strategies
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